Writing has become more important than ever. Here's a repository of articles written in various places for various purposes. It includes things published and unpublished, open letters, school papers, and anything else that I can think of.
School Papers (in PDF format)
Advanced Dynamic Reactived Arms Race Model. Arms races are, IMO, BS as models. They don't seem to hold up very well empirically, and seldom seem to be a root cause of actual conflict. But political scientists love them nevertheless. Here's my twist on it, which, rather than predicting warfare, predicts economic quitting.
The Taiwan Straits Scenarios: Examining China's Options. We make a lot of predictions about conflict with China, but just where is the all-out version of that conflict supposed to take place? Here I make the case for a rational Chinese in-theater first nuclear strike. The paper is game-theoretical.
China Taiwan and North Korea. I don't happen to think that the Taiwan Straits scenario is all that viable a flashpoint. As I show in The Taiwan Straits Scenario, there is no rational basis for the US to defend the island in the event of a Chinese invasion. North Korea is really where the action will be, and in this paper I try to make a case, albeit an anecdotal one, as to why.
Formalizing Violent Systems. This is probably my best paper from this school year. It was written with a few others, and is heavily mathematical, but if you have the intestinal fortitude to get through it, it has the most to say.
Wargame Related
Groping for the New Paradigm, Part I: The Endictment
Groping for the New Paradigm, Part II: Through a Glass and Darkly
Groping for the New Paradigm, Part III: Process of Design
Game Reviews
Battles of Marathon & Granicus
Historical